DAFNI helps safeguard UK against climate change risk
Every five years the Government conducts a UK-wide Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) report to understand and rank climate risks. This is followed several years later by an Adaptation Plan in each UK nation, which considers what is needed to address these risks.
The DAFNI (Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure) platform is a central part of the OpenCLIM project, which was designed to support UK-level Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) mandated by the Climate Change Act of 2008.
OpenCLIM conducted an integrated assessment of climate risks across five different sectors: heat stress, flooding, drought, agriculture, and biodiversity. They
made the results available to policymakers, and the legacy and workflows available to researchers through the DAFNI platform.
The Challenge
OpenCLIM was tasked with producing an assessment method for CCRA4 and beyond using the best available models and scenarios, including more granular spatial
outputs such as maps, and to provide a method to enable researchers to work with consistent inputs and common datasets.
There is a growing number of risk and adaptation models, but these are often viewed in isolation – hydrologists may not normally speak to researchers working
on heat stress, for example.
OpenCLIM focuses mainly on terrestrial sectors: urban development, biodiversity, flooding, heat stress, drought & water supply. This can be expanded to other sectors in the future.
The Solution
DAFNI provides a logical structure to the way that workflows are managed and is a key data repository for the project throughout its three years. It also provides an archive into the future, encouraging common standards and facilitating cross-institution working.
OpenCLIM is computationally intensive and a heavyweight user of DAFNI workflows.
As an example, 200 data layers were published on DAFNI in one week alone, as well as improvements such as loops in workflows, a more intuitive interface, and more clarity around permission inheritance.
DAFNI was key to the delivery of OpenCLIM and its legacy.
"It’s fair to say that, for the DAFNI team working with us on OpenCLIM, it was testing DAFNI’s capabilities and encouraged the team to innovate.”
Professor Robert Nicholls, University of East Anglia and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
The Benefits
OpenCLIM produced an assessment method for CCRA4 and beyond, producing spatially explicit maps, typically at 1km resolution throughout the UK, with some higher resolution outputs for biodiversity (20m) and urban development (100 m).
This enhances the UK’s capability to assess climate change risks and adaptation choices at scales from the local villages and small towns to regional, or nature-based solutions across entire catchments.
The spatially explicit results, in terms of detailed maps, are powerful tools to show patterns of change and to engage diverse stakeholders. DAFNI now hosts the OpenCLIM legacy – a set of workflows and output datasets across 5 different sectors for consistent scenarios.
OpenCLIM models hazard, exposure and vulnerability using climate scenarios and UK socio-economic scenarios, feeding into risk assessments at baseline (1981-2000), for the 2050s and 2080s timeframe, and impacts for temperature increases of +2°C or +4°C above pre-industrial levels.
As well as the UK government being able to use the outcomes produced, the devolved administrations can also use it in their plans.
“We’re also working on a regional and sub-national basis - we’ve had great interest from the Highland Council and
Norfolk County Council, for example."
“This work directly affects the entire UK population, allowing the government to have a much better understanding of climate risks such as heat stress and drought, and how the UK can adapt to them, and to look at how interventions will affect regions and the nations as a
whole.”
Professor Robert Nicholls, University of East Anglia and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
The Future
The OpenCLIM work with the DAFNI platform also has applications for other areas of research using integrated assessments and systemic assessments. The project’s
outputs can also be monetised to feed into economic damage analysis.
The process of taking a more systemic view is leading to more information for government, industry and the public as a whole. Astute businesses should also be aware of these issues, to be ready for change.
Making the data accessible for interpretation and used by government stakeholders and policymakers is critical. OpenCLIM is developing a visualisation tool to allow people to interact with the data as easily as possible.
“There’s interest from the UK Research and Innovation
programme on promoting adaptation across the UK with our work potentially feeding into that, as well as assessments of NetZero looking at climate risks and mitigation."
“DAFNI is funded for the long term as a recognised critical
national infrastructure. It will be there long beyond individual projects and the OpenCLIM results we’ve lodged in DAFNI will be available to researchers and policymakers for a decade or more beyond the project’s lifespan.”
Professor Robert Nicholls, University of East Anglia and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
The DAFNI Team and OpenClim
DAFNI leader Brian Matthews was part of the OpenCLIM management group. He and DAFNI colleagues Bethan Perkins and Rose Dickinson were critical to the success of the OpenCLIM project.
